Sources have stated that the Indian National Congress’s humiliating defeat in the recent Assembly elections in five states, particularly in its home state of Uttar Pradesh and the Assembly constituency of its vice-president Rahul Gandhi, are symbolic of the party’s present condition. The Congress is going through one of its worst slumps in its post-Independence history, and many digital bytes have suggested a surgical strike on its leadership and a complete overhaul of the party machinery.



The data, however, suggests a more nuanced picture. In various Assembly elections, since its defeat in the 2014 General elections, the Congress has actually improved its strike rate in terms of number of seats won per seats contested, although it has contested fewer seats. Not only that, it has also improved its vote share.

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It was stated that during the 2014 General election, the Congress party effectively contested in 1,544 Assembly segments parts of Lok Sabha constituencies equivalent to Assembly constituencies across these 10 states and won a mere 194, a winning percentage of 13%. In subsequent state elections in these 10 states, the Congress party contested in 1,032 Assembly constituencies across these states and won 258 a winning percentage of 25%.



Put simply, the Congress doubled its win rate between the 2014 General election and the subsequent state elections. In the 2014 election, 20 of every 100 voters (weighted by size of the state) in these 10 states voted for the Congress. Post-2014, 30 out of every 100 voters voted for the Congress, an increase of 10 percentage points in vote share.


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