YSRCP is hopeful of winning the 2019 elections as people are unhappy over TDP and their false promises. But, in ground reality what are the chances of YSRCP getting the momentum? We need to turn the pages and take a look at some of the factors.
1. 2014 Elections
In 2014, Telugu Desam got 32.5% of votes, while YSRCP got 32.01% votes. The margin of difference is very thin. Now, you should take Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena as at least 2% of votes came to TDP from Pawan supports. If PK factor is taken away, YSRCP should have bagged the majority
2. Strategy of the parties
Jagan's strategy is always a mystery. He plays smart and pulls most of the political leaders to his side. His Pada Yatra was a huge success. YSRCP showed its stubborn stand regarding the special status when Jagan went on the Padayatra. CBN's strategy was a failure on the other hand
3. Dynastic Obligation
YS Rajasekhar Reddy is more famous and popular than Chandrababu Naidu in AP and Rayalaseema regions. YSR implemented various schemes which were beneficial to all the people irrespective of their parties. But Chandrababu Naidu was pretty selective as he wanted the beneficiaries should be with his party and caste. So the anger against Chandrababu Naidu and dynastic obligation towards Jagan benefits YS Jagan.
4. Corruption
Well, all parties are corrupted. So, when it comes to corruption, we have to choose between the lesser devil. CBN's corruption is seen and felt by people as the impact is obvious. But YS Jagan's corruption is not felt by common people. So in people's mind, CBN is more corrupted than Jagan.
5. Anti incumbancy and a desire for change
This is a common factor in the state elections and even from this point Jagan has an advantage.
6. Pawan Factor
Already we have reported that Pawan's Jana Sena is TDP's B-Team and there are several allegations regarding that. Even though it won't make much difference this time, if Pawan is going to support TDP indirectly, it will be beneficial to Jagan
7. Money on the polling day
Both parties are having money in equal amount and we can expect money distribution from both the sides. But this time we can expect a little change in this factor.
8. Caste Factor
The caste factor may not effect much because the Kammas and reddy’s are almost equal in number. Anyway, most of the kapu votes will go to PK.
